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宋征宇, 方志耕, 赫武乐, 孙云柯, 王召, 李彩霞, 刘思峰. 基于贝叶斯理论的小子样运载火箭可靠性评估技术[J]. 深空探测学报(中英文), 2021, 8(1): 62-69. DOI: 10.15982/j.issn.2096-9287.2021.20200005
引用本文: 宋征宇, 方志耕, 赫武乐, 孙云柯, 王召, 李彩霞, 刘思峰. 基于贝叶斯理论的小子样运载火箭可靠性评估技术[J]. 深空探测学报(中英文), 2021, 8(1): 62-69. DOI: 10.15982/j.issn.2096-9287.2021.20200005
SONG Zhengyu, FANG Zhigeng, HE Wule, SUN Yunke, WANG Zhao, LI Caixia, LIU Sifeng. Research on Launch Vehicle Reliability Assessment of Small Sample Based on Bayes Theory[J]. Journal of Deep Space Exploration, 2021, 8(1): 62-69. DOI: 10.15982/j.issn.2096-9287.2021.20200005
Citation: SONG Zhengyu, FANG Zhigeng, HE Wule, SUN Yunke, WANG Zhao, LI Caixia, LIU Sifeng. Research on Launch Vehicle Reliability Assessment of Small Sample Based on Bayes Theory[J]. Journal of Deep Space Exploration, 2021, 8(1): 62-69. DOI: 10.15982/j.issn.2096-9287.2021.20200005

基于贝叶斯理论的小子样运载火箭可靠性评估技术

Research on Launch Vehicle Reliability Assessment of Small Sample Based on Bayes Theory

  • 摘要: 针对“长征八号”(CZ-8)运载火箭技术先进、研制成本高、可靠性鉴定试验实施难度大的情况,提出一种基于贝叶斯理论的小子样可靠性评估技术。根据贝叶斯定理,充分利用验前信息及试验数据,对常见寿命分布类型单元的贝叶斯可靠性评定模型进行了构建与推导,具体包括Weibull、二项、指数3种不同寿命分布类型的部件,给出了相应可靠性评估参数的数值计算方法;结合数据预处理、贝叶斯可靠度估计模型构建与计算等步骤,归纳了数据处理、先验分布构建等工作的几种方法,并对基于贝叶斯理论的小子样可靠性评估流程进行了总结;最后,选取运载火箭系统中3种不同类型的设备进行可靠性评估。研究结果表明:所提出的方法能够充分利用既有信息,对可靠性的评定结果要优于经典方法。

     

    Abstract: Aiming at the advanced technology, high development cost and difficult implementation of reliability appraisal test of LM-8 launch vehicle, a method of reliability assessment of small sample based on Bayesian theory is proposed. According to Bayes theorem, various pre-test information is fully utilized to make up for the deficiency of experimental data. Taking Weibull life model, Exponential life model and Binomial life model as three examples of life different distribution types, corresponding mathematical model and numerical calculation method combining Bayesian theory are discussed. Finally, three different types of equipment in the launch vehicle system are selected for reliability evaluation and the results show that the proposed method can make full use of existing information, of which assessment results are superior to the classical method.

     

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